Having a debate Friday on 2012, I need a little help?

Question

I am on the debate team for my high school and we are having a debate about 2012, I know, I don't pick the topics. I went through Yahoo answers and looked at all the 2012 questions, (And there are ALOT), I also went to a couple links that people had and to NASA's website. I stayed away from google, I made that mistake and I stayed off youtube, just because I can make a video saying that I am the next big thing and put it on there. I am on the side that is saying its not going to happen. I am listing my argument, will you please tell me if I am missing anything or if I have some wrong information? Thank you

1. Niberu doesn't exist, if it did we would see it.
2. The Mayan Calendar does not end, it's just ending a cycle.
3. The alignment happens every year.
4. Solar flares have no direct effect on humans, only on radio and other communication devices.
5. There have been predictions before this and there are actually predictions after 2012 about the end of the world.
6. Polar shifts take thousands of years to happen, and it would only mess up our compasses.
7. The sun heats up and cools down every 11 years.


Please tell me if I missed something or if I have some wrong information. Thank you.

Answer 1

You've pretty much got it. I would add



1a) The proposed existence of Nibiru makes certain predictions including a regular disruption in the orbits of the planets, including earth, which should show up in the geological record. No such cycle is observed.



1b) If Nibiru existed, and had made a close pass to earth in the past, then we would not expect to see earth in a stable orbit with a low eccentricity. Since earth is in this orbit, that is evidence against the existence of Nibiru.



1c) Nibiru advocates propose a global conspiracy involving all of the world governments, every astronomer, and every hobby stargazer with a telescope larger than 6 inches in order to 'hide' the existence of Nibiru from the world. On its face, this argument fails.



1d) Nibiru ( as predicted by Zacharia Sitchin ) is not supposed to approach earth until 2085. The 2012 date is a co-option of the "Nibiru" myth into the "Mayan Calendar" myth.



1e) A body that large would stabilize its orbit, and would not be found on a 3600 year highly elliptical orbit taking it from outside the orbit of Neptune to a distance of 1 AU from the Sun. It should have stabilized into a much more circular orbit by now.



1f) There is no evidence from any perturbations of the orbits of Uranus and Neptune that there is a large undiscovered body out beyond Neptune. Claims to the contrary are using data that is decades out of date. These data have been refined using observations from the Pioneer and Voyager spacecraft. There are no known 'anomalies' in the orbits of the outer planets.



2a) the Mayans made references to events that were predicted to occur after 2012.



3a) There is no 'alignment'. The line running between the centers of mass of the Earth and Sun does not intersect the center of the galaxy. It is off by almost 6 degrees.



3b) The sun will not occlude the center of the galaxy. The angular diameter of the Sun is slightly more than 1/2 a degree.



4a) The predictions of a larger than normal solar cycle in 2012 are made in the face of great uncertainty of the accuracy of predicting solar cycles. The consensus among astronomers is that we currently can not predict the peak strength of solar cycles.



4b) The above prediction made by a solar scientist indicated that the prediction was uncertain (i.e., speculative ), and also predicted that it *may* reach levels of the 1956 solar maximum.



6b) The field strength of earth does not drop to zero during a magnetic polar shift.



6c) There is no consensus among geologists that a magnetic polar shift is underway. In fact it appears to be quite the opposite.



6d) The magnetic polar fluctuations generally take hundreds or thousands of years to complete.



6e) The shifting of the magnetic poles is not run by a clockwork mechanism. Pole shifts have occurred regularly during some epochs, but have remained in one orientation for as long as 40 million years during others.



7) is not quite accurate. There is an approximate 11-year cycle of sunspot activity. This is magnetic in origin, and not tied to the temperature of the sun.



8) IRAS data (often cited by Nibiru advocates) from 1982 or 1983 did see an infrared object with no corresponding visual object. However, on subsequent observation this turned out to be a new (at that time) type of galaxy that was only visible in Infrared. IRAS did not see a 'planet' as some claim.



9) The claim that Nibiru exists is the positive claim. It is up to the advocates of that position to provide the proof that this object exists.



I've got some links you may want to look at at the end of my 'debunking' article (link below). Just scroll down to the bottom and read the links that go to "Universe Today" and "PseudoAstronomy"



EDIT: Corrected 3a... it's 'almost', not 'more than', added 9



EDIT: Since someone asked for references for my claims in (6), I refer to the work of Gary Glatzmaier at UCSC, cf http://www.es.ucsc.edu/~glatz/geodynamo.html

Answer 2

Pretty good. I have a few additions and clarifications:



1. Nibiru would also be detectable by its gravitational effect on other objects in the solar system. The planets, moons, spacecraft, etc., are all right where they're supposed to be.



3. The alignment of the sun with the galactic equator ("dark rift") happens every year. The alignment of the sun with the black hole at the center of the galaxy will not and cannot happen; the galactic center is more than five degrees from the plane of the ecliptic.



5. Nibiru itself was first predicted to arrive in 2003. The aliens supposedly responsible for that prediction never explained their error, so their human "interpreters" chose 2012 as the next doomsday.



6. Reversal of the earth's magnetic poles is gradual. Reversal of the earth's geographic poles (rotational axis) is impossible.



7. It's a little more complicated than that. The solar connection with 2012 is a prediction of solar flares. The sun's magnetic poles reverse every 11 years (just like the earth's do every few hundred thousand years), and the complex magnetic field changes trigger solar flares. The flares account for the sun's increased output (less than 1% greater at maximum than at minimum), but the sun as a whole isn't changing in temperature.

Answer 3

Your information is generally pretty good. However, the Sun doesn't heat up and cool down every 11 years. It does have an 11 year cycle but that pertains to periods of high and low numbers of sunspots. Also a polar shift means more than just messed up compasses. A pole shift would temporarily leave Earth without any significant magnetic field which protects us from high energy particles. Without the magnetic field skin cancer rates would undoubtedly rise along with various other problems.



I would point out that any measurement has uncertainty associated with it (from instrument error, etc.). And so any measurement to how close the Sun, Earth, and galactic center will come to aligning has uncertainty associated with it. Thus an absolute statement such as "the Earth, Sun, and galactic center will align on such and such date" becomes a worthless jumble of words.

Answer 4

You may want to ask the question, what is going to happen?



I can see you have stuff about solar flares, which happen all the time.

Also, the polar shift would just confuse travelers on *North*. Since Geographic and Geomagnetic North are two different things, and the GM Pole would just be moving.



(back to original though)

You could question whether we have found something that is going to happen, such as an asteroid impact or a super volcano. If there has been no evidence(scientists would have said something), then why is there a big deal?

Answer 5

It looks like you are getting a lot of interesting material above. I'm curious why you say you "stayed away from Google." It seems like you are saying it would be a mistake to use it (?) -- why? I think it would be good to search using Google.



I hope your debate is fun. One thing I suggest you be on the alert for in the opposing presentations is arguments of the sort like "we know that such and such an effect is real ..." without any reference to the magnitude of the effect. Don't get wrapped up in a yes/no kind of argument over something that may indeed exist but is so tiny that it doesn't really matter.



Also, beware of stretching the meaning of words like "alignment." As pointed out above, calling something that's 'not lined up very well but is as close as it will get' an "alignment" misleads people into thinking it's a perfect alignment.

Answer 6

People who promote 2012 are doing so to sell books and advertising on their doomsday shows. After each "predicted" doomsday passes with nothing happening there is a new one invented. I have watched the 2012 Doomsday program on the History (Hysteria) Channel. The content isn’t about any real 2012 event happening and it isn’t about history. It is about selling books and selling advertising on the TV programs.



There is no scientific theory that anything unusual is going to happen in 2012. ZERO scientists believe that anything out of the ordinary will happen in 2012. It is all total CRAP. These people are interested in one thing - MONEY. And by listening to their programs and/or buying their books you provide them with - MONEY. The more MONEY they make the more twists and turns they invent to make it more interesting so you will listen to new TV programs so they can make even MORE MONEY.



If you had hogwash to sell wouldn’t you try and package it so looked like prime rib? That is just what these shysters are doing… selling to those who will listen – HOGWASH. Drink deep!!! They need MORE MONEY. They need YOUR MONEY.



By the way... 2012 isn't the first Doomsday prediction. Here is a link to other Doomsday predictions from the past and present… THERE HAVE BEEN THOUSANDS OF DOOMSDAY PREDICTIONS… and none have come true.



http://www.abhota.info/end6.htm

Answer 7

#6 isn't exactly correct. When the polar shift happens, it must go through zero, so during that time we would have little or no protection from charged particles coming from space. This would likely wreak havoc on electrical power grids around the world.



However, there is no evidence that such a shift is imminent.



#1 is the ace in the hole, though. I have a standing offer of $5,000 US for the first person who can provide me with the right ascension and declination of an object that fits the description of "Nibiru." (at least 10 times earth's mass; 2,000 – 20,000 year orbital period; will pass within 5AU of earth any time within 6 months of 12/21/2012.) So far I've had no takers.

Answer 8

although not a proper debate strategy, i find that "pointing and laughing" is appropriate when debating someone about 2012.



oh, and the Sun doesn't heat up and cool down every 11 years, its a magnetic cycle. It comes from the Equator of the Sun rotating faster than its poles. And its 22 years for a cycle.

Answer 9

The Mayan - Aztec sun-stone calendar is real. It does not end, because it is circular



http://images.google.com/images?q=aztec+...



http://www.azteccalendar.com/azteccalend...



The Aztecs conquered the Mayans and absorbed the Mayan culture. There are many people with Mayan ancestry alive today, so the Mayans have not died technically. The Catholic Church did its best to wipe out their culture, but some of it still remains today.



Please, don't accept all answers as correct. I really wish one particular person would give sources backing up his statements other than his own web-site. I doubt if ANY geologists or geophysicists professionally disagrees that a magnetic polarity shift has been in progress for decades, because the total magnetic field strength of the Earth has been decreasing for decades. Whether the total magnetic field strength has to decrease to a total of 0 nanoteslas in all directions before the magnetic field shifts polarity is unknown and unconfirmed. The Earth already has at least one magnetic dipole that is not aligned with the rotational axis of the Earth. That is why so many magnetic anomalies have been recorded in the Bermuda/Devil's and Dragon Triangles for centuries.



I really wish people would state what college degrees or certifications they have. It really would give their statements that they give no supporting evidence for more professional credibility.

Answer 10

all good.

biblical quote for those who would accept it

..."Ye know not the day nor the hour"

the end of the mayan calender depends on the arbitrary date chosen for the beginning. Kind of like 2,000 AD. Nobody knows for sure when 0 AD or 1 AD really was.



Modern science puts the age of the known universe at about 14Billion years ago, Sun earth formation 4-5 billion yrs

Modern Human life at 2-300,000 yrs.



Why should it end now?



the sun should be good for another 5-10 billion, seems a waste of sun.



the neat thing is, by 2013 you can say "I told you so"



Bet them $100,000 it will not end.

If it does not, they pay you, If it does you pay them.

( I would love to hear the answer to that bet)

Answer 11

7 is a bit misleading. The sun doesn't necessarily heat up every 11 years, but the cycle of sunspots on its surface follows an 11-year cycle.



If you haven't already found it, this website about debunking the 2012 nonsense might be helpful ==>http://www.universetoday.com/2008/05/19/no-doomsday-in-2012/

Answer 12

The fault lies with the Republicans for going for glamour as a exchange of dynamism and journey whilst finding out on a working mate. Forgive me for sounding impolite, yet I fail to understand precisely what the Republicans observed in Sarah Palin different than glamour. definite, she is brave and smart, yet this is the achievable post of the vp of the main effectual united states of the international that we are speaking approximately, so they might desire to have given greater ideas whilst finding out on the candidate for this post. Obama's area has chosen Biden, and few could have any issues of that. definite, perchance Biden's accomplished some bloopers, yet so has the others, and besides, he's extremely dynamic, centred, properly-poised and seems to understand his place ok, as we observed on the Vice-Presidential debate. on the different hand, Palin confronted consistent scrutiny along with her severe-ware spending and different allegations. She became in all probability between the excuses McCain lost by using a landslide in this election.

Answer 13

The single most important point is that there is no physical evidence that supports the idea that anything special will happen in 2012. All your opponents can do is raise questions. They cannot provide any physical evidence. Simply ask them for references in peer-reviewed scientific journals that support their position. There are none.

Answer 14

For #2, you should point out that the Mayans simply didn't get around to drawing a calendar beyond 2012 because they were annihilated by European invaders.

Answer 15

I just thought I'd add that I've nothing more to add to that!



Excellent advice above.



Perhaps, though, you could add something about the number of previous doom predictions, all of which we've somehow survived.

Answer 16

you forgot about the reconing of the great domeheadders